Recent data from China’s General Administration of Customs indicates that the trade volume between China and Taiwan reached $27.025 billion in September, an increase of $452 million from August, marking a growth of 7.7% compared to the same month last year. China imported $20.662 billion from Taiwan, a rise of $487 million from the previous month, with an annual increase of 11%. However, exports to Taiwan amounted to $6.362 billion, reflecting a decrease of $36 million from August and a year-on-year decline of 1.6%.
For the first nine months of this year, the cumulative trade volume between the two sides totaled $212.436 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%. China’s imports from Taiwan reached $156.768 billion, up by 8%, while exports to Taiwan were $55.667 billion, a rise of 10.6%.
Analysts had previously suggested that while global demand is recovering and the electronic goods inventory cycle is coming to an end, significant jumps in trade between the two sides are unlikely to occur this year; instead, a gradual recovery is anticipated. There are also perspectives indicating that due to the shifting global supply chains, economic ties may gradually decouple in the long run.
Looking ahead, numerous uncertainties loom over cross-strait trade. Concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession could cool American consumer spending. Simultaneously, China may revoke previous tariff concessions on certain Taiwanese products and reimpose tariffs, which could impact trade statistics.
The Beijing Ministry of Commerce has stated that Taiwan has not lifted its trade restrictions against the mainland, and relevant departments are considering further measures based on the findings of investigations into trade barriers with Taiwan. Earlier this year, Beijing announced the termination of preferential tariffs under the Early Harvest Program of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA).
Since the beginning of this year, Beijing has suspended tariff reductions on 12 petrochemical products under the ECFA Early Harvest List and in May added a second batch of products that would no longer benefit from these reductions, covering sectors such as petrochemicals, textiles, machinery, steel, metals, and transportation. The Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs has repeatedly noted that the Early Harvest List accounts for only 6% of Taiwan’s exports and has a limited overall impact on Taiwan’s economy. Currently, under the global supply chain restructuring, Taiwan is pursuing a diversified economic and trade strategy to mitigate risks.
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