A significant rainfall event is set to impact the central and eastern regions of China, initiated today and expected to last until October 18th. Meteorologists are forecasting ample moisture and favorable conditions, predicting that some areas in Henan and Shandong may experience rainfall rarely seen during this period.
Tomorrow is anticipated to be the peak of this rainfall event, with intense short-duration downpours likely to erupt in southern regions. This setup is driven by the northward movement of warm, moist air colliding with colder air from the north, which will create a widespread precipitation pattern.
The upper-level trough and low vortex shear lines are providing strong uplift dynamics, while low-level southerly winds are transporting significant moisture, leading to ideal conditions for precipitation.
Areas of northern China, including southern Central Hebei, Huai River region, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and western Jiangnan as well as eastern parts of Sichuan, are expected to experience moderate to heavy rain. Specific regions such as southern Shandong, eastern Henan, eastern Hubei, and parts of northeastern and western Hunan may even see localized heavy downpours.
Tomorrow is projected to be the most intense phase of this weather system, with a low vortex shear system forming due to the simultaneous force of warm and cold air. Rainfall levels are expected to peak from tomorrow night into the early hours of the following day. Regions including southern Shandong, eastern Henan, northern Anhui, and northern Jiangsu may face heavy rains.
By the day after tomorrow, the heavy rainfall zone will shift eastward toward the Shandong Peninsula, while moderate to heavy rain will persist in parts of the Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, northern Guizhou, and central-western Hunan.
This rainfall event is particularly notable for its potential intensity; during the peak, while northern regions will experience mainly steady precipitation, areas like southern Shandong and eastern Henan might record rain amounts that approach or exceed local October extremes.
In the south, the high temperatures leading up to this event have generated ample unstable energy, setting the stage for intense, short-duration downpours beginning tomorrow evening and lasting into the next day. Rainfall rates could reach 20 to 40 mm per hour, with isolated instances potentially exceeding 50 mm.
While this rainfall is beneficial for soil moisture and autumn planting, it poses a high risk of urban flooding in southern Shandong and northern-central Henan. Additionally, attention must be paid to the potential for secondary disasters in southern Sichuan, southern Chongqing, and northern Guizhou due to previous rainfall.
After this rainfall event, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through northern China between October 18th and 19th, with temperatures dropping by 8 to 10 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern Northwest, Northeast, central-eastern North China, and areas of the Huai River and Jianghan regions. Northern North China and central-southern Northeast could see drops of 10 to 12 degrees Celsius, with localized drops exceeding 14 degrees Celsius.
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