On October 17, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected the military and emphasized the importance of recognizing South Korea as a foreign and adversarial entity. During his visit to the Second Command of the People’s Army, he warned that North Korea would unconditionally and decisively use force if its sovereignty was violated by South Korea.
Kim stated that the severance of highways and railroads connecting North and South Korea symbolizes not just a physical closure but also a complete break from what he referred to as a “malicious relationship” with Seoul. He stressed the need to eliminate any sense of kinship or unity between the two Koreas, asserting that only by curtailing the enemy’s power can North Korea achieve reliable, safe, and consolidated peace. He insisted that the military must become stronger.
According to reports from the Korean Central News Agency on the same day, North Korea has amended its constitution to designate South Korea as a hostile state and has destroyed connecting roads between the two countries. The North has committed to fortifying its closed southern border permanently.
As tensions between the two Koreas escalate, there are growing concerns about the potential for renewed conflict. Professor Kim Dong-yup, who teaches at Seoul’s Korea University, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of North Korea initiating a full-scale war, noting that the regime is well aware of the severe consequences that massive conflict would entail.
Similarly, Professor Nam Sung-wook, also at Korea University, suggested that North Korea’s recent accusations regarding South Korean drone incursions might serve as mere rhetorical tactics. Both Koreas, he argued, understand that they cannot bear the cost of full-blown war, making the actual use of nuclear weapons unlikely.
Professor Kang Dong-wan from Dong-A University in Busan echoed these sentiments, asserting that North Korea is leveraging military confrontations to bolster internal solidarity rather than escalate to the level of war.
According to the European Broadcasting Union, North Korea boasts the fourth-largest military in the world, with nearly 1.3 million active personnel, representing about 5% of its total population, along with approximately 600,000 reserve troops.
Since taking power in 2011, Kim has prioritized defense spending, stating in January that 15.9% of this year’s government budget would be allocated to military expenses. Estimates suggest that North Korea’s military spending could account for around 36.3% of its GDP in 2023, ranking it second highest globally.
Additionally, Kim has aggressively pursued nuclear capabilities, leading the country through four nuclear tests in 2013, 2016, and 2017. Under his leadership, there have been at least 160 ballistic missile launches, surpassing the totals conducted by both his father, Kim Jong Il, and grandfather, Kim Il Sung.
About the author