The size and high costs associated with wind turbines are contributing to slow growth in wind energy, making it less competitive compared to solar power. Inadequate growth in wind energy could hinder global efforts to meet renewable energy production targets.
At last year’s UN Climate Summit in Dubai, over 130 countries pledged to triple their renewable energy output by 2030. However, data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) indicates that, while this goal remains achievable, the installation pace for wind turbines is lagging.
Oliver Metcalfe, head of wind research at BloombergNEF, noted, “The slow progress in wind energy is directly impacting the effectiveness of achieving renewable energy targets.”
A decade ago, the annual installation capacities for solar and wind energy were quite similar. However, significant investments by Chinese companies to expand solar panel production led to a dramatic drop in prices, resulting in a surge in solar installations.
In the past five years, global solar energy capacity has more than doubled, while wind energy capacity has increased by only about half that amount, and this trend appears to be ongoing. BNEF forecasts that in 2024, solar installation capacity will grow by 34%, while wind capacity is expected to only increase by 5%. Moreover, outside of mainland China, wind installation capacities in other regions might even see a slight decline.
Sven Utermöhlen, head of offshore wind operations at RWE in Germany, pointed out significant bottlenecks in wind energy, including inadequate equipment supply, insufficient grid capacity, and difficulties in obtaining permits. Offshore wind projects, in particular, require long lead times, with market adjustments taking several years to materialize.
BNEF predicts that by 2030, solar energy will account for over 90% of the total required for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, whereas wind energy will only contribute 77%.
Solar power has distinct advantages over wind energy, largely due to the smaller size of solar installations compared to wind turbines. Solar panels can be installed on rooftops, in fields, and in parking lots, making them viable in both densely populated and rural areas. In contrast, wind turbines, which benefit from larger sizes, face challenges such as the need for massive cranes, airplanes, and ships for transport and installation, and they are often criticized for their impact on landscapes.
Cost is another significant issue. The surge in solar panel production in China has driven prices to historic lows, while recent increases in steel and other critical turbine components, along with supply chain bottlenecks and rising borrowing costs, have pushed up wind energy costs. By the end of last year, the cost of electricity generated by newly built onshore wind projects in the U.S. had risen by about 40% compared to the historic lows of 2021. In Germany, Europe’s largest wind market, the costs have increased by 35% since their historical low in 2019.
The rapid growth of solar energy means that the global green electricity generation targets are still within reach. However, if the pace of wind energy development slows, it may require an even higher total generation capacity to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions.
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